Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transport Through Doubling of Global Vehicle Fuel Economy by 2050: the Global Fuel Efficiency Initiative (GFEI) - Regional Implementation

Project General Information



00845

GFEI

4909

Climate change

Climate Change

V





Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario:

·         The world’s light duty vehicle stock is expected to approximately triple from 2012 to 2050 under BAU (0.9 to 2.5 billion vehicles) with 90% this growth taking place in non-OECD countries (Figure 1). A tripling of the global vehicle stock is expected to more than double the global vehicles related CO2 emissions.

·         Transportation accounts for a quarter of the world’s energy usage and for a quarter of the global CO2 emissions - which is set to increase to a third by 2050 (IEA, 2011). The transport sector CO2 emissions are increasing more rapidly than any other sector.

·         Transport is a major contributor to Black Carbon (BC) emissions that is now believed to be the second most important climate change emission.

·         To date, global climate change mitigation programmes and initiatives have not given a level of attention to the role of transport that is in proportion to its impact. Given the significant contribution of road transport to emissions, addressing road transport and automotive fuel efficiency forms an integral part of the G8 and IPCC recommendations to limit global warming to 2ºC from pre-industrial levels.

Baseline Project

The first GFEI (GEF4) project established the tools needed for countries to be able to develop fuel economy policies. The baseline for this new GFEI regional regional project is that the GFEI is working in 11 countries (see annex 1) supporting these countries to develop national fuel economy policies. These activities are fully funded by other donors (including EU, US, Germany, and several major Foundations). We are developing at least another 4 country projects using the same resources (see annex 1). Without GEFV support we will support an estimated 15 countries, with the GEF5 support we will be able to increase this number to 20.

The 20 countries included in this project have not put in place comprehensive policies that promote a shift to cleaner and more efficient vehicles, which would be needed to avoid the scenario of major increases of CO2 emissions as described above in the Business-as-Usual text. However all countries included in the project have requested support in developing such policies, recognizing the multiple benefits of such policies.

The policy baselines in the 5 countries with STAR allocations is as follows:

Peru’s nationwide fuel sulphur level is very high (5,000ppm), with only the cities of Lima and Callao at low levels (50ppm). Although no target date has yet been set for introduction of cleaner fuels and vehicles, Peru has indicated to be ready to move on fuel quality and vehicles issues, with refinery upgrades planned and an inter-ministerial national taskforce set up in 2012 to plan the way forward. The existing vehicle emission standard of Euro 2 (from 2001 law) is currently being revised for Euro 3 - 5. Imported vehicles must be less than 5 years old. There is currently no data on the vehicle fleet (numbers of imports and types of vehicles) and no fuel economy policies. Peru has requested support on cleaner fuels and more efficient vehicles and has committed USD 400,000 of their GEF 5 STAR allocation to the GFEI Project to develop a clean and efficient vehicles policy.

Jamaica has a nationwide fuel sulphur level of max 5,000ppm with no target date set for low sulphur fuels. The country has no vehicle emissions standards or fuel economy policies or roadmap in place. However, some regulations have been pout in place, for example imported vehicles must be less than 3 years old from the date of manufacture. There is very little information on the vehicle fleet, e.g. number of vehicles, age, technology, efficiency, etc. Jamaica has requested support to develop a clean and efficient vehicles policy and committed USD 400,000 of their GEF 5 STAR allocation to the GFEI Project.

Montenegro transitioned to Euro 5-level fuel quality and vehicle emission standards in early 2011. However, further work on lowering CO2 emissions from vehicles (i.e. fuel economy) has been limited to initial information gathering on the country's vehicle fleet (numbers of imports and types of vehicles). UNEP has invested USD 40,000 in an information-gathering project to form a national working group and determine the country's data availability on its light duty vehicle imports. However, further calculation of a fuel economy/auto CO2 emission baseline and the design and implementation of a policy framework will require a full, multi-year GFEI project.

Mali has no fuel economy policies or roadmap in place. The national standard for sulphur level in diesel is very high (10,000 ppm). Although the actual fuel quality is probably much better (between 2,000 to 5,000 ppm) as imports are mainly from Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire.  There is very little information, even within Government on vehicle status, e.g. number of vehicles, age, technology, efficiency, etc. Mali would need to develop a policy from scratch, starting with the establishment of basic data on its vehicle fleet.

Even though Mauritius has no comprehensive fuel economy policy and road map, the Government is keen to improve the vehicle fleet and has introduced policies/incentives to promote this.  For example, there is a 50 % excise duty waiver on electric and hybrid cars and a 50% reduction in registration fee.  A vehicle CO2 tax was introduced 2011. Imported vehicles must be less than 4 years old. In March 2012, the Government adopted a Euro-4 equivalent diesel sulphur standard of 50 ppm. Additionally, a national steering committee was set up, with the aim of achieving 50 ppm sulphur level diesel importation and to promote the use of cleaner vehicles. Thus the country is ready to develop and implement a comprehensive fuel economy policy.

Alternative Scenario – GFEI intervention - doubling fuel economy:

Alternative to business–as- usual

The GFEI aims to improve the global automotive fuel economy from its current global average of 8L/100km to 4L/100km. This will be achieved through having countries that have not yet done so adopt clean and efficient vehicles policies (which in some cases includes the introduction of cleaner fuels that are necessary to allow introduction of modern, more efficient vehicles).

While in OECD countries policies have been put in place to improve efficiency (from 2005-08 average fuel economy improved 2.3%/yr), in non-OECD countries there are only a handful of countries that have policies to promote fuel economy – actually fuel economy got worse in non-OECD countries on average 0.3%/yr from 2005-08 (IEA, 2011).

The trend is that the fuel economy in non-OECD countries is increasingly deteriorating while at the same time almost 2 billion vehicles will be added to these countries in the coming decades.

Doubling fuel economy together with measures promoting public transport, non-motorised transport, better urban planning etc. can actually reduce the overall CO2 emissions of the transport sector.

Alternative to the Baseline

GEF 5 support will allow to support the 5 above listed countries to develop a clean and efficient vehicles policy. These 5 countries have prioritized this issue , have been in direct contact with the GFEI partners and have decide to allocate their STAR funds to a national fuel economy project.

Thus GEF5 support will increase the baseline of 15 countries to 20 countries. It will also support a regional component that will coordinate and share information among the 20 project countries and will promote the replication of fuel economy policies to other countries within regions.

Progress to date

Thus far the GFEI has made excellent progress in the implementation of a global fuel economy program. A comprehensive interactive online tool was developed that includes examples of policy interventions of countries around the world – providing a menu of options for countries developing fuel economy policies.

Baseline methodologies were developed, a secretariat was set-up and four country pilot projects are implemented. GEF4, as one of several partners, provided support to the project that set-up the GFEI and the four pilot country projects. Together the tools, the lessons learned from the pilot projects, the network and institutional set-up now allow the GFEI to start supporting groups of countries in regions.

An independent review by Climate Excellence (an African NGO) established that the GFEI has accomplished most of the major objectives as per the GEF4 Project Agreement. Most notably:

·         Developed an online global database on fuel and vehicle characteristics (http://www.unep.org/transport/pcfv/cleanfuelsdata/);

·         Created an on-line toolkit (www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool) providing details of adopted fuel economy policies and information for countries to develop a fuel economy policy;

·         Set up pilot projects in 4 countries (Kenya, Indonesia, Chile, Ethiopia) to develop fuel economy policies;

·         Established a Secretariat and a partnership with public and private sector organisations to assist in implementation;

·         Created initial informational and awareness raising materials;

  • Developed a methodology for country baseline data setting, providing a means to measure progress and policy impacts

Full Size Project(FSP)

Global


Global


Global, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Ivory Coast, China, Georgia, India, Jamaica, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Russian Federation, Vietnam, Philippines, Macedonia


GEF Trust Fund

Stage Grant to UNEP Grant to other IA Co-Financing UNEP Fee Other IA Fee
$ 2,077,273.00 $ 0.00 $ 13,460,582.00 $ 207,727.00 $ 0.00


No





External



Executing Agency Category
URC (UNEP Risoe Centre )
UNEP Collaborating Center

Partner Category

Name Category Period
Geordie Colville
Principal

Moderate Risk

Lack of political interest in countries on the issue of fuel efficiency; Lack of implementation of global, regional and national commitments made by involved stakeholders.




0





Fiscal Year Project activities and objectives met


$ 0.00


No